By Andrew Ede
María José Guerrero is the regional delegate for the state meteorological agency Aemet, the head of the agency in the Balearics. Against a background of some recent high temperatures for late April, she says that spring is now beginning earlier and autumn is starting later.
"It's an objective fact. Since the 1980s, summers have been getting longer - now by twenty days - and winter has been getting shorter. This winter lasted only a month to a month and a half."
Last summer there was an all-time high temperature in the Balearics. Montuiri in Mallorca and Formentera now share the record - 44.5C. Guerrero explains that average temperature has been rising by half a degree every decade. One hundred years from now and it could be five degrees. "That's a lot. Paris predictions speak of a degree and a half. We instead talk about five. It's about global warming and climate change. Heat waves will be longer and there will be more hot and tropical nights."
When might there be a high of 50C? "That's hard to say. With the tools we have at present, it can't be predicted, but rainfall can be. It's set to decrease by one per cent every ten years. That's not much. But we are observing that the intensity is greater, not the amount. The rainfalls are concentrated into a shorter period."
As to this summer, Guerrero says that it's hard to know if historical records will be set. "That is a detail but the forecasts are more global. From May to September we believe that the temperature will be higher than normal. But whether there is a record or not isn't known."
There are climate change deniers. Are they right to at least be sceptical? "Everyone is free to express their opinion, but the data show that climate change is a reality. The temperature of the planet is rising. Extreme events are more frequent. If someone wishes to deny this, well, the agency's opinion is supported by objective data."
April 30, 2023 at 03:19PM
via Mallorca Daily Bulletin read more...
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